WASHINGTON (OSV News) — Former President Donald Trump holds a substantial lead over his Republican rivals for their party’s presidential nomination, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.
Trump leads his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the poll. No other rival — including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley or Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. — had more than 3% support. Trump led DeSantis 54% to 17%.
Trump still led DeSantis in a hypothetical one-on-one race by a two-to-one margin, according to the poll, at 62% to 31%, respectively.
Siena College Research Institute director Don Levy said Trump’s lead over his rivals is “commanding.”
The institute at the Catholic-run Siena College conducts regional, statewide and national surveys on matters including political, social, and economic issues.
“No other candidate currently polls higher than 3%,” Levy said of their findings. “More than three-quarters of Republican voters view Trump favorably and two-thirds view DeSantis favorably. However, GOP voters overwhelmingly see Trump rather than DeSantis as a strong leader, able to get things done and as best able to beat President Joe Biden.”
Primaries six months away
Trump lost the 2020 election to Biden, despite making unfounded claims of systemic election fraud. But the NYT/SCRI poll surveyed the likely Republican primary electorate and does not provide a snapshot of how the pair would fare in a potential 2024 rematch. A Real Clear Politics average of recent polls of the general electorate accessed July 31 shows Biden with a slim lead over Trump at 45% to 44.1%.
The first primary contests are less than six months away. The NYT/SCRI poll was published less than one month before the first Republican primary debate, scheduled for Aug. 23.
Trump led DeSantis both among Republicans who believe abortion should always be legal, and among those who believe it should always be illegal.
On the issue of abortion, most Republicans favored stricter limits, according to the poll.
“By 55-37% they say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases and by 57-36% they support a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks,” Levy said.
The poll also found that when given a choice between a hypothetical candidate who prioritized “defeating radical woke ideology” or one who prioritized “law and order in our streets and at the border,” less than a quarter — 24% — said they would be more likely to support the candidate who focused on combating “woke” ideology.
The term “woke” originates from the Christian religious language of Black Americans, referring to one’s spiritual and moral vigilance, but recently has been appropriated by political activists who use it to refer instead to perceived secular or progressive political ideas.
