(OSV News) — Former President Donald Trump won New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary Jan. 23, according to a projection of the race by The Associated Press, defeating his last remaining rival, former U.N. Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, in the key contest.
Trump’s win led one Catholic political observer to tell OSV News that Trump’s supporters are loyal and committed, mostly drawn by “Trump’s unique personality, rather than policy proposals or a coherent ideology.”
The result was a setback for Haley, who invested a great deal of time and resources in New Hampshire, where she had risen in polls in the months before the primary.
But Haley sounded unfettered in her election night remarks to supporters in Concord, where she said, “New Hampshire is first in the nation, it is not last in the nation.”
Race is far from over
“This race is far from over,” she said, pledging to go on to compete in her native South Carolina and beyond.
Winning the early voting contests in Iowa or New Hampshire does not guarantee an eventual presidential nomination, but a victory in those states — or exceeding expectations there — can give candidates momentum heading into the next primary in South Carolina and the rest of the nomination process.
However, as Trump dominates polling in the Republican primary, his allies in the party are expected to push to declare him the presumptive nominee early, so he can shift his focus to the general election.
Robert Schmuhl, professor emeritus of American studies at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana, who critically observes the modern American presidency, told OSV News, “When you consider the New Hampshire primary results together with the Iowa caucus vote, it’s almost a misnomer to refer to the Republican Party.”
“What we see today could more accurately be called the Trump Party. His support is loyal, enthusiastic and committed,” Schmuhl said. “Trump’s unique personality, rather than policy proposals or a coherent ideology, creates his fervent following. The question, of course, is whether his base will be large enough to win a national election as opposed to these nominating contests.”
John White, a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, told OSV News that “the margin is going to be important” when the full results from New Hampshire come in. Haley outperforming polling expectations could give her a longer runway to stay in the race, he said.
“The question is going to be: Can she make it through these upcoming states where independents are allowed to vote? That also buys her time,” White said.
Despite Haley’s efforts in New Hampshire, she made some strategic errors there, White argued, including an awkward answer to a question about slavery and declining to participate in a New Hampshire debate, missing a key opportunity to connect with the electorate there.
“She might have been given an hour of free time on WMUR, which is the largest television station in New Hampshire, for an electorate that doesn’t know her very well,” White said. “All they know is that she’s not Trump, but they really don’t know her.”
Haley will continue to campaign, White said, as “still far and away the underdog in this race.”
A poll conducted by the St. Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics prior to the departure of Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., from the race, found Haley at 38% and Trump at 52% support in the days leading up to the primary.
Haley was endorsed by both the state’s Gov. Chris Sununu and its Union Leader newspaper.
The New Hampshire primary
The New Hampshire primary is the first such contest for both major parties due in part to a state law directing that New Hampshire’s primary be held before any “similar election.” Iowa was the first contest in the nomination process, but that state holds caucuses.
President Joe Biden was not on New Hampshire’s Democratic ballot, as Biden chose not to register in the Granite State after it did not conform to the Democratic National Committee’s calendar that scheduled South Carolina to be the first primary election for Democrats. In 2020, a victory in South Carolina helped Biden secure his party’s nomination. However, was a write-in campaign effort for Biden from some New Hampshire Democrats.
Biden’s long shot primary challengers include author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn.
