Back in 2013, all eyes were on Rome as the general congregations took place following the surprise resignation of Pope Benedict XVI.
For me, this was a whirlwind time, a baptism by fire, as I had only been in Italy for a year covering news from the Vatican.
At the time, speculations about the next successor to the chair of St. Peter were all over the place.
I was asked who I felt would be the next pope during an interview with an Italian news broadcaster. While I don’t recall speculating about a specific cardinal, I did say that the climate at the time could pave the way for the election of a non-European pope.
However, no one, myself included, expected that the first pope from Latin America would be elected. Not even the Italian bishops’ conference, who, not long after white smoke appeared above the Sistine Chapel, mistakenly published a press release congratulating Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan on his election as pope.
12 years later, Pope Francis’ transformative papacy has come to an end. While the Church and the world mourn the first Latin American and first Jesuit pope, the obvious question that comes to everyone’s mind is: Who will be next?
A different Church and world
When I told that reporter so long ago why a non-European pope was possible, it was not because I had any insider source hinting at that. It just seemed that the Catholic Church, which at the time was dealing with internal strife, scandal and a loss of trust among the faithful, perhaps needed someone from outside the Vatican walls to give it some perspective.
For better or worse, it is safe to say that Pope Francis’ unconventional approach achieved that.
It’s a very different Church and a very different world from what it was in 2013. Political and ideological divisions in the world have somewhat seeped into the Church, dividing it into liberal vs. conservative, right vs. left and woke vs. based, none of which have anything to do with Christ and his Gospel.
The divide became even more apparent with the release of Fiducia Supplicans (“Supplicating Trust”), the 2023 declaration allowing Catholic priests to bless a same-sex or other unmarried couple — despite the fact that the document said it cannot be a formal liturgical blessing, nor give the impression that the Church is blessing the union as if it were a marriage.
Some, including the secular media, hailed its release as a step toward the Catholic Church recognizing same-sex unions. In contrast, others, most notably the bishops’ conferences in Africa, ruled that such a blessing would not be carried out due to cultural differences and doctrinal confusion.
The Vatican’s doctrinal office, led by Argentine Cardinal Victor Fernandez, issued a clarification in response to the confusion, and Pope Francis, in an interview with CBS News, further clarified that the declaration was not a blessing of same-sex unions.
“What I allowed was not to bless the union,” the pope told CBS journalist Norah O’Donnell. “That cannot be done because that is not the sacrament. I cannot. The Lord made it that way.”
Among other issues facing the Church and the world today are the current wars and conflicts that Pope Francis has rightly called “a third world war fought in pieces.” Nevertheless, the current conflicts, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza, have made the prospect of a third world war feel all too real.
A tide of speculation
Some, particularly those irked by Pope Francis’ papacy, began thinking about the next pope long before Francis’ health became a genuine concern.
One of the most notable speculations was a profile of the next pope written by an anonymous cardinal under the pseudonym “Demos II,” a hat-tip to a 2022 memorandum written by an unnamed cardinal — later revealed to be the late Cardinal George Pell — who called Pope Francis’ papacy “a disaster in many or most respects; a catastrophe.”
According to the Italian-based Catholic news site, The Daily Compass, the anonymous Demos II “collated the suggestions of other cardinals and bishops” to create a profile of the next pope meant to “circulate among cardinals in view of the forthcoming conclave.”
Unlike Cardinal Pell’s scathing assessment, “Demos II” conceded that Pope Francis’ strength lay in his emphasis on compassion toward the poor and marginalized and his “concern for the dignity of creation and the environmental issues that flow from it.”
However, went on to criticize his pontificate as “an autocratic, at times seemingly vindictive, style of governance; a carelessness in matters of law; an intolerance for even respectful disagreement; and — most seriously — a pattern of ambiguity in matters of faith and morals causing confusion among the faithful.”
The next pontificate, the unnamed cardinal wrote, “must therefore be one of recovery and reestablishment of truths that have been slowly obscured or lost among many Christians.”
In 2020, papal biographer and historian George Weigel published his book “The Next Pope: The Office of Peter and a Church in Mission.” In it, Weigel does not mention possible candidates but focuses on the “challenges the next pontificate must address as the Church enters new, uncharted territory.”
In a 2020 article published in First Things shortly after its release, Weigel explained that his book was “not about handicapping possible candidates for the papacy or profiling them.”
Instead, he said, it was meant to reflect “on what Petrine, papal leadership might look like in the middle decades of this century by drawing on my experiences with Pope John Paul II, Pope Benedict XVI, Pope Francis, and a myriad of fellow Catholics.”
Nevertheless, Weigel’s book drew some attention when the National Catholic Reporter revealed that Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York had sent copies of it to cardinals around the world.
Speaking anonymously, several cardinals said they were concerned that such a book was sent while Pope Francis was still alive.
“We have a pope, and our beloved St. Pope John Paul II gave us clear norms about a future conclave,” one anonymous cardinal told NCR, referring to the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis.
According to the apostolic constitution, cardinals are forbidden “during the pope’s lifetime and without having consulted him, to make plans concerning the election of his successor, or to promise votes, or to make decisions in this regard in private gatherings.”
In an editorial in the Catholic Herald, seasoned Vatican journalist John Allen said that as speculation on the next pope grows, certain misconceptions about those speculations should be considered.
The first, he said, is the belief that “there is some inner circle of seers, like the oracle at Delphi, who can deliver advance knowledge of what’s going to happen.”
Allen, who had included then-Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio on his list of papabili during the 2013 conclave, noted that many experts and newspapers overlooked the Argentine cardinal as a possible candidate, preferring to name more well-known cardinals, like Cardinal Scola and Cardinal Sean O’Malley of Boston.
Allen said the best advice in front of “a wave of predictions” was “to pay attention — but, at the same time, to hedge your bets.”
The upcoming conclave
According to the online database Catholic Hierarchy, as of April 23, there are 252 cardinals in the Church, 135 of whom are cardinal-electors, those under the age of 80 eligible to vote in the upcoming conclave.
The Reuters news agency reported that after the consistory of Sept. 2023, roughly 73% of the College of Cardinals members were created by Pope Francis, which — although it’s not a surefire guarantee — may increase the chances of the next pope being more in line with his style.
But, just as the 2013 conclave proved, there is just no way of knowing until it happens.
Nevertheless, several interesting predictions and speculations on the papabili have been made, particularly in the secular media. So, who are some possible candidates being mentioned?
Cardinal Péter Erdo, archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Hungary
Cardinal Erdo, who, at 51, was one of the youngest cardinals created by Pope St. John Paul II in 2003, is among the few remaining members of the College of Cardinals created by St. John Paul II eligible to vote.
The Hungarian cardinal, who turns 73 in June, has quite some years ahead of him. He gained prominence when he was elected as president of the Council of the Bishop’s Conferences of Europe (CCEE), serving two terms.
Cardinal Erdo also gained respect for his ecumenical efforts with the Orthodox Church. Given both his credentials and his affiliation with Pope St. John Paul II, he is seen as a possible contender, particularly from the more conservative side of the Church.
In an interview with NCR in 2023, conservative writer Rod Dreher said that in a conversation with Cardinal Pell three weeks before his death, the Australian prelate “was so in favor” of Cardinal Erdo becoming the next pontiff.
Erdo is “a very fine canon lawyer, and this place (Rome) is lawless,” Dreher recalled the cardinal saying.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican secretary of state
Serving as Vatican secretary of state since 2013, Cardinal Parolin could be seen as a potential candidate who may appease both Pope Francis’ supporters and detractors.
A seasoned diplomat, he served as undersecretary of the Secretariat of State in 2002 during Pope St. John Paul II’s pontificate. He was later appointed by Pope Benedict XVI as apostolic nuncio to Venezuela in 2009, an extremely delicate appointment at the time given tensions between the Catholic Church and then-President Hugo Chavez.
However, Cardinal Parolin may not appeal to those cardinals seeking a candidate looking for someone to continue Pope Francis’ pastoral approach, given that the Italian cardinal has had no real pastoral experience.
At the same time, earlier assignments at nunciatures in Nigeria and Mexico, as well as the many current diplomatic crises in the world he has dealt with as a longtime member of the Roman Curia, give him an advantage as someone familiar with the Church’s mission in the world.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, Italy
Pope Francis created Cardinal Zuppi, a longtime member of the Sant’Egidio community, a cardinal in 2019, and appointed him president of the Italian bishops’ conference (CEI) in 2022.
However, Francis further elevated the Italian cardinal’s international status, naming him as the pontiff’s special envoy “to help ease tensions in the conflict in Ukraine,” the Vatican said in May 2023.
In his role as special envoy, Cardinal Zuppi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and then-U.S. President Joe Biden. Although he did not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he held talks with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill in Moscow, the first between the Russian patriarch and a papal representative since the start of the war in 2022.
He met with government authorities in Beijing to further advance the Vatican’s hope of negotiating a peaceful resolution between Ukraine and Russia.
According to Reuters, his visit in 2023 was no small feat, given differences between China and the Vatican regarding the appointment of bishops and the Holy See’s continued recognition of Taiwan as a state.
Nevertheless, Cardinal Zuppi’s efforts in achieving peace could make him a potential papal contender in a world seemingly on the brink of war.
Cardinal Anders Arborelius, bishop of Stockholm, Sweden
As the first Swedish cardinal, Cardinal Arborelius’s elevation in 2017 surprised many, especially him. He found out about it from two priests who happened to come across the news online.
“It was a complete surprise to me. At first, I did not really believe it, but then they showed me the news on the internet,” he told Swedish radio station Sveriges Radio shortly after the announcement.
Asked why he thought the pope had chosen a cardinal for Sweden, a country where Catholics make up roughly one percent of the population, Cardinal Arborelius thought that perhaps there was interest “in the Catholic world to see what it is to live in a secular society and still be able to develop the church.”
Since his elevation, the Swedish cardinal has been lauded for his level-headedness and is liked by both conservatives and progressives in his country.
Yet his status as a possible successor to the chair of Peter drew the attention of Swedish media in April after an article published by the French newspaper Le Figaro included Cardinal Arborelius in its list of papal candidates.
According to Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet, the French article stated that the cardinal is “first and foremost a man of prayer but also a noted theologian, committed to ecumenism.”
The article went on to say that his experience in leading the Church in “a highly secularized country where Catholicism is in the minority” is an advantage.
“This cardinal, who is not yet very well known, also enjoys a clear charisma, which is something indispensable for a pope,” Le Figaro stated, according to Aftonbladet.
A spokesperson for Cardinal Arborelius, who turns 76 in September, said, before Pope Francis’ death, that the cardinal refused to comment on speculation. “There is nothing to comment on; the pope is alive,” Agnes Eggertz, the cardinal’s assistant, told the Swedish news site SVT Nyheter.
Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, papal almoner
At first glance, Cardinal Krajewski may seem an unlikely candidate. Like Cardinal Parolin, he has very little pastoral experience, serving in the Archdiocese of Łódź for only two years after his ordination in 1988 before continuing his studies. In 1999, Pope St. John Paul II named him papal master of ceremonies.
However, what Cardinal Krajewski lacks in pastoral experience, he makes up for greatly in his actions and deeds since Pope Francis named him his papal almoner in 2013.
According to the Vatican Dicastery for Charity Services, the Polish cardinal is charged with “offering charitable assistance to the poor in the name of the Holy Father” in his role.
However, during an interview with several journalists, Cardinal Krajewski spoke about how Pope Francis redefined the mission of the papal almoner, a position that was always held by aging prelates before retirement.
“The Holy Father told me at the beginning: ‘You can sell your desk. You don’t need it. You need to get out of the Vatican. Don’t wait for people to come ringing. You need to go out and look for the poor,'” the cardinal said, according to an Associated Press report.
Since then, he has been seen as a champion of the poor and the suffering. He made headlines in Italy and around the world for his actions as papal almoner; from climbing down a manhole cover in Rome to restore power to a group of squatters residing in a state-owned building to dodging gunfire while delivering much-needed humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Those are just a few experiences that may make Cardinal Krajewski an appealing candidate to those who want to carry on Pope Francis’ dream of “a church which is poor and for the poor!”
