Many over recent decades have pondered if every pope is guaranteed by the Holy Spirit to be the pope God “chooses” for us. How far does the inspiration of the Holy Spirit extend into conclaves? Are the “dice” loaded by God who alone determines the outcome by “causing” the cardinal electors to choose the man he wants? And, more broadly, are there any settings in which God, the Holy Spirit, either causes or prevents certain outcomes or teachings?
There are indeed some settings within Church life where we can say that the Holy Spirit prevents or even directs certain outcomes. One example of this is an ecumenical (i.e., full) gathering of the bishops, in union with the pope, when they issue teachings or decrees on faith and morals to be definitively held by all the faithful. The first example of this took place at the Council of Jerusalem in A.D. 50. There was vigorous debate among the leaders of the Church as to whether Gentile converts must live culturally as observant Jews. Even the apostles had differing views (e.g., Paul and Barnabas opposed the “party of James.”) Peter rose and established a position to end the debate. James asked for certain concessions which were granted, and the matter was settled. But most important for our purposes is the wording of a letter that went forth from the council (Acts 15:23ff):
The brothers, both the apostles and the elders, to the believers of Gentile origin … greetings. Since we have heard that certain persons who have gone out from us, though with no instructions from us, have said things to disturb you and have unsettled your minds, we have decided unanimously to choose representatives and send them to you … . For it has seemed good to the Holy Spirit and to us to impose on you no further burden than these essentials: that you abstain from what has been sacrificed to idols and from blood and from what is strangled and from fornication.
This letter was sent forth to all the local Churches as a decision and teaching.
Note that the early Church invokes the Holy Spirit as a witness to the veracity of her decision: “It has seemed good to the Holy Spirit and to us … .” Hence, to use later language, this decision, which includes both doctrine and discipline, is infallibly guaranteed by the Holy Spirit.
Another example of this is that Jesus declares the Holy Spirit will guarantee that revelation (i.e. Scripture), that is completed with the death of the last apostle, is inerrant and infallible (Jn 14:26):
But the Advocate, the Holy Spirit, whom the Father will send in my name, will teach you everything, and remind you of all that I have said to you.
So yes, in certain, limited cases, God the Holy Spirit does guarantee that dogmatic teachings on matters of faith and morals are God’s will and infallibly true; and that they are to be definitively held by the faithful.
How the Holy Spirit guides a conclave
But what of a conclave? Does such a vote bring forth a man infallibly known to be the choice of God? It would seem this is not the case. Just because certain very limited things enjoy the seal of being infallibly taught does not mean that all deliberations and decisions of the Church are infallible. While the Holy Spirit does seek to inspire the cardinal electors, generally, God does not force his will in such a way as to harm their human freedom. His graces are sufficient to assist the cardinals in choosing the “right man.” But these Cardinals, like any of us, are free and able to respond to the Spirit’s inspiration or to resist those graces and be more influenced by other voices, be they ideological, political or just popular. I do not say this cynically; it is just the nature of this as God has set it forth. He inspires with his graces but does not compel. Hence, we should not argue that the Holy Spirit alone determines the pope of any conclave, and it is possible that the man chosen is either pleasing to God or is less than pleasing to him.
Does this mean that God is simply stuck with what is decided, good or bad? Certainly not. There is a mysterious interaction between our freedom and God’s sovereign providence. God is never powerless. It helps to recall that God lives in the “eternal now” where past and future are equally present. God is not waiting for things to happen or wondering about outcomes. God has always known the pope who will be elected in this conclave. He has already dispensed the necessary graces to deal with the outcome. In many cases through history, a very solid man was chosen, and God provided graces to guide and bless him and the Church. In other cases (some well-known from history) a pope was selected who was worldly, or perhaps very sinful, and God provided the graces for the Church to endure and grow in holiness under less-than-ideal leadership. God can make a way out of no way and can draw great and unexpected goods even from the worst situations.
We still need to pray, fast and sacrifice
Does this providence of God mean that it is useless to pray since outcomes are already determined? No. Remember as well that God has always known if we would freely pray, fast or offer sacrifices and has already included their merits in his outpourings of grace.
Thus, while we cannot conclude that whoever is elected was the man chosen by God, we can know that God provided inspirations in the process without canceling human freedom.
So we must certainly pray that God the Holy Spirit will give great inspiration to the conclave of cardinals. May they be sensitive to his promptings of what is best for the Church, not merely what or whom they prefer. May every grace accompany them to choose a man after God’s own heart. Our prayers can surely cause more graces to flow. So, pray, fast and make sacrifices that those graces may flow like a mighty stream!
